I’m reporting a potential issue with land distribution behavior in MTG Arena.
Over an extended sample size across multiple decks, I’ve tracked opening hands and early draws and observed a consistent deviation from expected land probabilities specifically when games are played at rank-promotion boundaries (e.g., Tier 4 → Tier 3).
This behavior appears regardless of deck archetype and does not occur when the same decks are played away from promotion thresholds.
I understand variance and RNG, but the consistency and repeatability suggest a possible unintended interaction with matchmaking, rank state, or shuffler logic.
I’m happy to provide raw data and methodology if helpful.
Jim#41903
shared this idea
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MagicMark#01913
commented
It seems like any promotion level boundary is exceedingly hard, and you ALWAYS get scrooged a few times. it's as if, they say, "let's really scrooge him on 1,2,3 drops and/or lands and see if they can really EARN it .." Mathematically IMPOSSIBLE deal distribution, like Powerball odds. They need to do better.
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bonsai#70698
commented
I would recommend posting the dataset and conclusions via a read-only Google sheet https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Google_Sheets for ease of consumption and export.